CRCC created “The Varieties of American Evangelicalism” in advance of the 2018 midterm election. This short report intended to help journalists and other observers of American cultural and political life better understand the nuances of Evangelicals’ political engagement, highlighted and exposed by their overwhelming political support for Donald Trump. We describe five varieties or “types” of evangelicals who share a common evangelical theology but differ greatly on how Christian teachings are to be lived out in American culture and politics: MAGA-vangelicals, Neo-fundamentalists, iVangelicals, Kingdom Christians, and Peace and Justice Evangelicals (click links to read more about each).
Heading into the 2024 election, we continue to see unwavering evangelical support for Trump and the MAGA agenda. The majority of white evangelicals will vote for Trump, even if they are not all MAGA-vangelicals. At the same time, the 2020 election and the subsequent January 6 insurrection, the Dobbs decision and state battles over abortion, immigration, a sense of lost influence in American society, Trump’s legal troubles and more are influencing how evangelicals across our typology apply their shared beliefs in this presidential election.
We have observed changes within and between our five varieties of evangelicals over the last four years, pointing to an internal fight over what values truly represent evangelical Christianity and how it should engage with issues in American culture.
First, it’s important to note that our five types are not equal in numbers or strength. MAGA-vangelicals might be the most vocal, but iVangelicals (megachurch Christians, focused primarily on individual sin and salvation) account for the bulk of voters. This group tends to be solidly Republican, though some may have soured on Trump over the past few years. Kingdom Christians and Peace and Justice Evangelicals are far fewer in numbers and lack the institutional power of conservative evangelicals, but their efforts to sway iVangelicals away from Trump have gained prominence this year.
It is also important to note that evangelicalism is increasingly diverse, mostly with Latino and Asian representation. The polling category of “white evangelical” obscures this diversity, though the majority of evangelicals across all of our varieties are white and older.
Here are some trends:
Trump-vangelicals become MAGA-vangelicals
What we previously labeled as “Trump-vangelicals” are now better described as MAGA-vangelicals, though “MAGA” may be just the latest name of a fluid movement. They represent a broader, perhaps more permanent nationalist movement that pines for the “better days” of the past. In this, Trump has now become the tool through which to achieve their social and political aims, which in many ways are unchanged from the concerns of their forebears of a century ago. Those early evangelicals (known at the time as Fundamentalists) worked to outlaw the teaching of evolution in public schools and railed against the threats of “Bolshevism” and “Modernism” to America’s identity as a “Christian nation.” One significant difference between today’s MAGA-vangelicals and the evangelicals of 100 years ago is that there is currently an increased acceptance of armed violence to “take back the country” from the liberals who, in their view, would turn America into a godless, perhaps satanic society.
Neo-fundamentalists shrink
Many leaders we had identified as “neo-fundamentalist evangelical” are becoming both more, and less, identified with Trump and the MAGA agenda. We originally observed the neo-fundamentalist evangelicals taking a moral line against Trump while also supporting his policies. Now, eight years after the 2016 election, we see leaders like John MacArthur (who is a graduate of the flagship fundamentalist school, Bob Jones University) and Southern Baptist Seminary President Albert Mohler border crossing into MAGA-vangelical territory by more vocally supporting Trump as the (imperfect) vehicle through which they can advance their religious and political aims.
On the other hand, Russell Moore, now the editor of the mainstream evangelical magazine, Christianity Today, remains a stalwart never Trumper. David French argued in his New York Times column that a vote for Kamala Harris (along with down ballot conservatives) would “save conservatism.” Support for Harris, however, should not be overstated. Just as politicians defecting from Trump (like Mike Pence, Dick and Liz Cheney) hope to defend the Republican party from MAGAism, the religious rejection of Trump is in defense of a conservative interpretation of evangelical Christianity. French, Moore, and former pastor Curtis Chang are leading an effort to help evangelicals put Jesus over political party. Another effort puts forth broad Christian convictions on engaging in politics, such that evangelicals of all varieties can feel some sense of unity without it affecting anyone’s religious beliefs, political perspectives or voting decisions.
Nonetheless, given the percentage of white evangelicals who voted for Trump in 2020, it is apparent that many neo-fundamentalists did vote for Trump, supporting his policies if not his rhetoric. They are likely to do so again.
Evangelicals for Harris
Kingdom Christians and Peace and Justice Evangelicals are getting serious about applying their grassroots organizing, skills of persuasion and religious conversion by making appeals to Jesus’ teachings, rather than to longstanding evangelical dogma, in the effort to convert iVangelicals from Republican and Trump/MAGA supporters into conscientious voters for Harris.
There are three separate but related efforts in this regard: Evangelicals for Harris, Christians for Kamala, and Vote Common Good, with each having similar strategies in arguing that “true” evangelical Christian teachings support Harris, not Trump. In fact, Evangelicals for Harris made a significant initial splash by calling Trump a “false prophet.” Each of these efforts include well-known evangelical leaders (several of whom are part of the two other pro-Kamala groups) in their effort to emphasize how Harris is the candidate that best embodies “true Christian values” as opposed to Trump.
Interestingly, none of these groups are calling for a new religious movement. They all reference the same religious and theological sources to mobilize their constituencies, both actual and potential. But distinct from those who would vote for Harris to “save conservatism,” this group argues that the true values embedded in evangelical Christianity support Democratic policies on issues such as economic issues, affordable health care, and creation care, and not Trump or the MAGA agenda.
These efforts target our largest type – iVangelicals, focused on personal values and salvation. Yet, converting Trump voters to Harris voters may involve a form of a religious conversion, considering Trump’s status as MAGA martyr. Further, to the extent they do find success in this effort, it is not at all clear whether any converted voters will fully move into the orbit of Kingdom Christians or Peace and Justice Evangelicals and remain there over the longer term.
Running the numbers
If history is any measure, significant support from evangelicals for Harris is unlikely.
Since at least the 1960s, a majority of white evangelicals have voted for the Republican candidate for president in every election but one, with Barry Goldwater in 1964 receiving only 34 percent of the white evangelical vote (and only 38.5 percent of the overall popular vote). In 2020, Trump tied Richard Nixon in winning the highest proportion of white evangelicals voting for a candidate: 84 percent.
Thus, as we approach the 2024 US presidential election, the question on everyone’s mind returns to polling: Will Trump maintain his overwhelming advantage among white evangelicals, and (considering recent declines within evangelicalism) will their support be enough to propel him back to the White House? Or will Harris draw away enough evangelical votes in key battleground states to push her over the edge?
The stakes are high not only for the presidential election but the faith itself. Long after the election, evangelicals across the varieties will continue to campaign for their vision of evangelicalism and how its members should enact their faith in the larger culture.
